Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys

We examine the properties of the ASA-NBER forecasts for several US macroeconomic variables, specifically: (i) are the actual and forecast series integrated of the same order; (ii) are they cointegrated, and; (iii) is the cointegrating vector consistent with long run unitary elasticity of expectations with respect to the actual series. We also examine whether forecasts respond to error correction terms. Tests are applied to both final and preliminary versions of the data. We find that the Treasury bill rate, housing starts, industrial production, inflation and their forecasts are trend stationary. The corporate bond rate, GNP, the GNP deflator, unemployment and their forecasts are difference stationary. About half of the these pairs are cointegrated, with the unitary elasticity restriction seldom rejected. Similar results are obtained when using the originally-reported data.

The Classification of Extragalactic X-ray Jets

The overall classification of X-ray jets has clung to that prevalent in the radio: FRI vs. FRII (including quasars). Indeed, the common perception is that X-ray emission from FRI's is synchrotron emission whereas that from FRII's may be IC/CMB and/or synchrotron. Now that we have a sizable collection of sources with detected X-ray emission from jets and hotspots, it seems that a more unbiased study of these objects could yield additional insights on jets and their X-ray emission. The current contribution is a first step in the process of analyzing all of the relevant parameters for each detected component for the sources collected in the XJET website. This initial effort involves measuring the ratio of X-ray to radio fluxes and evaluating correlations with other jet parameters. For single zone synchrotron X-ray emission, we anticipate that larger values of fx/fr should correlate inversely with the average magnetic field strength (if the acceleration process is limited by loss time equals acceleration time). Beamed IC/CMB X-rays should produce larger values of fx/fr for smaller values of the angle between the jet direction and the line of sight but will also be affected by the low frequency radio spectral index.Comment: 4 pages; to appear in the conference proceedings: "X-Ray Astronomy 2009: Present Status, Multiwavelength Approach and Future Perspectives"; Bologna, Italy, September 2009, Editors: A. Comastri, M. Cappi, L. Angelini, 2010 AIP (in press

Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market

We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that: (i) in recent years electronically-brokered transactions have risen substantially, mostly at the expense of traditional brokers; (ii) the market norm is an important det e rminant of interbank bid-ask spread and the most widely-cited reason for deviating from the conventional bid-ask spread is a thin/hectic market; (iii) half or more of market respondents believe that large players dominate in the dollar-pound and dollar-Swiss franc markets; (iv) technical trading best characterizes about 30% of traders, with this proportion rising from five years ago; (v) news about macroeconomic variables is rapidly incorporated into exchange rates; (vi) the importance of individual macroe c onomic variables shifts over time, although interest rates always appear to be important; (vii) economic fundamentals are perceived to be more important at longer horizons, while short-run deviations from the fundamentals are attributed to excess speculation and institutional customer/hedge fund manipulation; (viii) speculation is generally viewed positively, as enhancing market efficiency and liquidity, even though it exacerbates volatility; (ix) central bank intervention does not appear to have substantial effect, although there is general agreement that it increases volatility, and finally; (x) traders do not view purchasing power parity as a useful concept, even though a significant proportion (40%) believe that it affects exchange rates at horizons of over six months.

Monte Carlo simulations of liquid crystals near rough walls

The effect of surface roughness on the structure of liquid crystalline fluids near solid substrates is studied by Monte Carlo simulations. The liquid crystal is modeled as a fluid of soft ellipsoidal molecules and the substrate is modeled as a hard wall that excludes the centers of mass of the fluid molecules. Surface roughness is introduced by embedding a number of molecules with random positions and orientations within the wall. It is found that the density and order near the wall are reduced as the wall becomes rougher, i.e., the number of embedded molecules is increased). Anchoring coefficients are determined from fluctuations in the reciprocal space order tensor. It is found that the anchoring strength decreases with increasing surface roughness

Automatic photointerpretation for land use management in Minnesota

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

Providing Preventive Oral Health Care to Infants and Young Children in Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), Early Head Start, and Primary Care Settings

This report focuses on seven oral health programs that provide preventive oral health care to young children (infants, toddlers, and children up to 5 years old) in Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), Early Head Start (EHS), and primary care settings. All of the programs strive to increase access to preventive oral health care by integrating dental services into primary care settings, WIC clinics, or EHS centers. These programs also rely on primary care providers (physicians, nurses, medical assistants, etc.) or new types of dental hygienists who can practice in community settings to deliver preventive oral health services. Two additional reports in this series describe the remaining programs that provide care in non-dental settings and programs designed to specifically address socioeconomic, cultural, and geographic barriers to preventive oral health care.The findings from the EAs of these programs are synthesized to highlight diverse and innovative strategies that are utilized to provide preventive oral health care in primary care settings, WIC clinics, or EHS centers. These strategies have potential for rigorous evaluation and could emerge as best practices. If proven effective, these innovative program elements could then be disseminated and replicated to increase access for populations in need of preventive oral health care

Electron Energy Distributions at Relativistic Shock Sites: Observational Constraints from the Cygnus A Hotspots

We report new detections of the hotspots in Cygnus A at 4.5 and 8.0 microns with the Spitzer Space Telescope. Together with detailed published radio observations and synchrotron self-Compton modeling of previous X-ray detections, we reconstruct the underlying electron energy spectra of the two brightest hotspots (A and D). The low-energy portion of the electron distributions have flat power-law slopes (s~1.5) up to the break energy which corresponds almost exactly to the mass ratio between protons and electrons; we argue that these features are most likely intrinsic rather than due to absorption effects. Beyond the break, the electron spectra continue to higher energies with very steep slopes s>3. Thus, there is no evidence for the `canonical' s=2 slope expected in 1st order Fermi-type shocks within the whole observable electron energy range. We discuss the significance of these observations and the insight offered into high-energy particle acceleration processes in mildly relativistic shocks.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, in Extragalactic Jets: Theory and Observation from Radio to Gamma Ray, Eds. T. A. Rector and D. S. De Youn